And so our season preview reaches the melting pot that is League Two, featuring some hungry young non-league upstarts, some bigger names who’ve fallen on hard times, and a few ambitious clubs looking to kickstart a rise up the pyramid.
Always competitive to the last kick, last season saw Shrewsbury edged out at the death by a Wycombe team who scored a winner that never should have been, while Accrington surprised everybody with their run to the playoffs. So will this be the Shrews year and can Stanley maintain last season’s momentum? And what of new boys, moneybags Crawley and fan-owned AFC Wimbledon?
Our five predictors for League Two are: Plymouth Argyle fan and co-editor of the two unfortunates Football League blog Lloyd Langman, MirrorFootball.co.uk columnist and Gillingham fan Simon Head, AFC Wimbledon fan Charles Williams, journalist and Oxford United supporter Thom Airs, and the brains behind Greenwich Gull, Torquay-supporting Ben Mayhew.
Who’ll win the title and get promoted?
Lloyd: Ok, perhaps this is a little conservative of me, but I think it’ll be a toss-up between Crawley (who else) and Oxford. Horrible as they are, I think the former’s siege mentality will stand them well once again and they look particularly strong in attack - I won’t look forward to facing any of Matt Tubbs, Wesley Thomas, Tyrone Barnett or John Akinde this term.
Oxford, meanwhile, have been pretty active in the market, and were able to tie up a good few deals early on which is always a positive sign. Their crowds will be big and they’ll have some momentum, and although I don’t think that the Yellows will be unbeatable, players like Peter Leven, Tony Capaldi and Deane Smalley should stroll this division.
Simon: This year will be extremely close to call. Crawley have the squad to finish in the top three, but I suspect they’ll be beaten to the title. Oxford look strong, so I’ll tip them for the title, with Crawley and my club Gillingham gaining automatic promotion.
Charles: As we’ve just come up, I’m not an expert on League 2. That said, I am at least prepared, in a way existing L2 fans aren’t, for the irritating relentlessness of Crawley Town’s self-dubbed “Project Promotion”. I imagine they’ll be aiming for a repeat this season, and I wouldn’t bet against them. If they’re not at least in the mix, something will have gone very badly wrong for them.
Along with Crawley, it looks to me like Bristol Rovers are probably the best-equipped of the League 1 relegation quartet to make an immediate return. They’d be my top two and if I had to guess a champion, it would probably be Crawley. I’d love to be proved wrong, though.
Third place? It’d be nice if Dagenham could get back up, as I think they were pretty unlucky to go down, so I’ll opt for them.
Thom: As much as it pains me to say it, it’s difficult to look past Crawley, whose mystery benefactor has continued to strengthen the squad. Of the sides to enter the division from the trapdoor above, Bristol Rovers look strongest, while last season’s nearly men Shrewsbury and Gillingham are worth a punt. My top three: Crawley, Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury.
Ben: Depressingly, it’s hard to look beyond Crawley Town for the title: their mysteriously-obtained budget dwarfs that of their competitors and if they’re not top by Christmas they’ve got the financial muscle to load the dice further in January. The other two automatic promotion slots are tougher to call: Bristol Rovers have spent well under Paul Buckle and should be aiming for an instant return to League 1, while the third slot should go to classy Shrewsbury who were desperately unlucky to miss out last season.
Which sides will make the playoffs?
Lloyd: I’m not going to be so brave as to predict a third promotee, but I reckon that one of the following will clinch it: Accrington, Bristol Rovers, Dagenham, Gillingham, Northampton.
It’s 10 years since my team, Plymouth, last started a season at this level so it’s fair to say that my knowledge of this tier is a little bit patchy. That said, I do feel qualified to predict that Bristol Rovers will be a success under Paul Buckle. Perhaps it’s not a big statement, though: Buckle has consistently overachieved at Torquay through the years, and he’s exactly the type of manager I’d have liked to see turn up at Argyle over the past few seasons during which time we’ve been ill-advisedly putting our eggs in the basket of experience.
The amount of new arrivals at the Mem could well see the Pirates choke at points, however, so I’m not sure that they’ll fend off the challenge from some of the other tastier sides that are lining up alongside them. Gillingham in particular, following a so-so season last year, look well equipped and the signing of AFC Wimbledon legend Danny Kedwell stands out.
A Gary Johnson side at this level can never be discounted, either, so Northampton, reunited with Bayo Akinfenwa, will be a handful too. Accrington have lost players, but I hear good things only about manager John Coleman and they have an impressive record of year-on-year improvement going back quite far.
Finally, I think that Dagenham will cause problems. Although two of their better players in Romain Vincelot and Danny Green have exited, they were one of the slicker sides that I saw last term (even my dad thought so and he’s usually just a bundle of passive indifference) and I was surprised to see them come back down to League 2.
Simon: Northampton, Shrewsbury, Rotherham and Torquay should all be there or thereabouts, with AFC Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers not far off.
Charles: I’ve left Swindon out of my automatic promotion mix - basically because I think Di Canio is the managerial appointment equivalent of an American football Hail Mary. Who knows how that’ll turn out, honestly?
Gillingham seem to be throwing money around this summer, relatively speaking. It’s possible it just seems that way to me because of their swoop for Wimbledon captain Danny Kedwell and their gazumping of us for our planned Kedwell replacement Adam Birchall. They just missed out on the play-offs last season, so maybe this is a financial gamble to make that final push.
Will Torquay be the same without Paul Buckle? If they can pull it together, they could be there or thereabouts again, along with last season’s other play-off entrants Shrewsbury and Accrington.
And Wimbledon? I think a lot of our fans would like to believe it’s possible. If we’d retained Kedwell, I might even be one of them. But we’re going to have to significantly adapt our play without him and I’d be happy with survival.
Thom: Oxford’s title odds have shortened with each summer signing and although automatic promotion may prove just out of reach, a play-off berth is well within their capabilities. Rotherham, under the guidance of the likeable Andy Scott, definitely have the firepower to finish in the top seven. Play offs: Oxford, AFC Wimbledon, Gillingham, Rotherham.
Ben: I’m tempted to say Torquay given the groundswell of optimism generated by new manager Martin Ling’s encouraging start, but I’m not prepared to jinx our season. The intriguing combination of Swindon and Paolo di Canio will probably be in the mix and should be fun to watch in any event. I also predict that Oxford will play their way into the reckoning: they’re one of the bigger sides in the division and have made some astute additions to their squad.
Northampton were disappointing last season but I’m going to stick my neck out and tip them to make the top seven this time around. If Rotherham can hang on to Adam Le Fondre then they should have the mettle to secure a play-off place, otherwise Gillingham look best equipped to beat them to it after some shrewd transfer business this summer.
Which sides will get relegated?
Lloyd: Crewe have lost players and I’m not sure that Dario Gradi’s association with the club will end happily. In writing that sentence, though, it does take a leap of imagination to see Alex outside of the 72 and I’m almost embrassed to stick my neck out like that. But it’s more fun than just going for Macclesfield or Barnet like everybody else.
Simon: That’s a horrible question to ask a League Two fan, as it’s something you wouldn’t wish on any fan at this level. I fear for Hereford and Barnet this season, and if pushed would pick those two as the most likely to slip through the trapdoor. I’ve got my fingers crossed for Plymouth Argyle, who have a difficult season ahead, on and off the pitch.
Charles: As I say, hopefully not Wimbledon. One thing we’ve got going for us at the moment is great morale, but we’ve got three of the relegated sides in the first three games, so we could be on nul points by the back-end of August. And these things can spiral quickly…
This is probably undue pessimism. There should be two sides worse than us in this league. I think they’ll probably be Hereford and Barnet. But it does look to me like the strongest League 2 for some years.
Thom: There has been a steady trickle of ‘big clubs’ exiting the division at the wrong end in recent years and I just wonder if this year is Bradford’s turn to suffer that indignity. Their defence in particular looks weak this term. Relegation: Bradford, Macclesfield.
Ben: Macclesfield look the most vulnerable: they put in some spirited performances last season but the reality is that, attendance and hence budget-wise, they’re the smallest side in the division and don’t seem to have replaced the key players they’ve lost over the summer.
Picking a side to join them is probably the toughest call to make, with Burton and Hereford seeming the most conspicuously exposed. I’ll plump for Burton on the basis of their poor away record last season - Hereford ground out almost twice as many points on the road.
Are there any sides you think could be a surprise package?
Lloyd: It’s Jim Bentley’s first gig at Morecambe and I think he’s putting together a bit of a side. Kevin Ellison and Gary McDonald have been brought in and, by virtue of having heard of them before, that’s enough for this charlatan to knock together a suprise contender prediction. Similarly, Paul Sturrock’s Southend seem to be under the radar, but the Luggy that I know and love will no doubt have put together a squad capable of holding their own.
At the other end of the scale, how the bookies are backing Swindon is beyond me - I just can’t see di Canio pulling it off down in Wiltshire. I think that they’ll finish closer to the bottom than the top.
Simon: I’m a big believer in momentum in football and I see AFC Wimbledon being very close to, if not in, the playoffs this season. They went up alongside Crawley this summer and, while Crawley have thrown money around to sign a host of new players, the Dons have lost their star striker and captain (to Gillingham). But they have acquired some solid players and, with the aforementioned momentum from winning the Conference playoffs, plus the passionate support of their long-suffering fans, I see them doing well this season.
Charles: People who don’t know the background will probably be surprised by Crawley. “Wow,” they’ll say, “how can a club with such a small supporter base make this expenditure work under the financial fair play rules?” And that will be a very fair question.
And I say this from a position of little knowledge, but surely, surely a club of Bradford’s pedigree can’t languish indefinitely in the bottom half of the bottom division? It doesn’t look right to me.
Thom: AFC Wimbledon are on the crest of a wave and will attract many neutrals’ attention. Stevenage and Accrington mixed it with the top teams last year, so there’s no reason Terry Brown’s men can’t do the same. On the flipside, Paolo Di Canio’s Swindon are sure to do something this season. Whether it’s tearing up trees at the top of the table or plummeting further from the heady heights of a play-off final just 14 months ago, it’s unlikely to be dull. The plight of Plymouth will also provide the most interesting, if uncomfortable, off-the-field story.
Ben: A few of last season’s underachievers have made significant changes over the summer and could well catapult themselves into the promotion reckoning. I’m going to back Northampton to achieve the biggest swing from last season’s disappointing placing: their experienced manager Gary Johnson has won promotion from this division before and he’s assembled an exciting squad which I expect to be challenging from the off.
Which players in the division should we look out for?
Lloyd: Of the players that I know from last season’s League 1 or from the distant past, Dagenham’s striker Josh Scott looks the part and will cause problems if he can stay fit; Chris Lines and Jo Kuffour will be important players both for Bristol Rovers given their experience at a higher level; and Swindon’s Kevin Amankwahh will continue to be unspeakably bad.
Otherwise, Matt Tubbs should fare well at Crawley given his pedigree (he didn’t look too bad at all against Man Utd in the Cup) and the rumour that he’s on Championship wages, and I’m keen to see how Marvin Morgan gets on at Shrewsbury following his outburst on Twitter down in Aldershot last year.
Simon: Adam Le Fondre is arguably the best natural finisher in the division and I’m very surprised nobody from a higher division has snapped him up. Jake Robinson was mystifyingly surplus to requirements at Shrewsbury and should be a key player in Northampton’s promotion challenge. And Gillingham’s new signing from Peterborough Chris Whelpdale brings a Championship-quality midfielder to League Two. I’m expecting big things from all three players this season.
Charles: I’d mention Wimbledon’s Rashid Yussuff, who looks the business as a silky, dribbling attacking midfielder, but I’m concerned enough about retaining him without more people finding out about him. I know Gillingham’s signing of Danny Kedwell can be seen as a gamble, but the guy is just a total winner - he says he’s aiming for 20 goals this season and I believe him.
Thom: Adam Le Fondre at Rotherham will always score goals but he’ll come under pressure to be top dog at the Don Valley from new signing Danny Schofield. His fellow former Millwall striker Neil Harris may be knocking on a bit but is surely a good acquisition for Southend.
Ben: Leaving aside the fact that half of Crawley’s team should probably be plying their trade in League 1, with prolific striker Matt Tubbs likely to be banging them in for fun, the division is chock-full of exciting players.
In particular, Gillingham fans are understandably excited by the acquisition of Chris Whelpdale, whose dynamism and creativity should add genuine class to the division. Craig Stanley effected a similar transformation in Torquay’s midfield last season and he could well thrive in Bristol Rovers’ engine room. Bradford’s Ross Hannah also deserves a mention; he hit a staggering 52 goals for non-league Matlock last season and could be a revelation if he can make the step up.
It’s an almost unanimous expectation, then, that Crawley will take the League Two title, with only Simon suggesting Oxford may pip them to the top spot, even if nobody seems particularly complementary of the Sussex club. Oxford are also a popular choice for promotion, along with Bristol Rovers and Shrewsbury.
At the bottom of the table, there are plenty of different suggestions for relegation, ranging from Crewe and Bradford, to the usual suspects of Hereford, Barnet and Macclesfield. As Charles says, though, this is the strongest League Two for quite a while.
Lloyd co-edits the two unfortunates, who can be found on Twitter @twounfortunates, while Ben is the man behind Greenwich Gull and is on Twitter as @greenwichgull. You can read Simon’s work at MirrorFootball.co.uk and Gills365 and can follow him @simonhead. Thom and Charles can be follow @thomairs and @RandomVentures.
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Tags: AFC Wimbledon, Bradford City, Burton Albion, Crawley Town, Crewe Alexandra, Gillingham, Hereford United, Macclesfield Town, Northampton Town, Oxford United, Plymouth Argyle, Rotherham United, Shrewsbury Town, Torquay United