After yesterday’s Premier League predictions from our five fans, it’s time to turn our attention to one of the most exciting and unpredictable leagues in the world (and that’s not hyperbole): The Championship.
The last few seasons have been incredibly difficult to call at this time of the year, with relegated Premier League teams far from assured of a return to the top flight, while unfancied teams such as Blackpool, Norwich and Swansea head for promotion. And what of those teams who’ve spent heavily and failed to win promotion?
Those are the questions vexing our five Championship-supporting fans. As per yesterday, we’ve asked five questions to five fans from the top five divisions on how they think their division will pan out. By the end of it, you’ll have a rough overview of the division and who the fans think the main contenders and flops will be.
Your predictors for today are: ITV Football brain and Leeds United fan James Appell, Reading-supporting Rob Langham from the two unfortunates, Middlesbrough fanatic Catherine Wilson, and the Football Fairground’s Terry Duffelen (Crystal Palace) and Chris Oakley (West Ham).
Who’ll win the title and get promotion?
Terry: I believe that West Ham will be promoted, automatically. Blackpool’s attacking approach to the game could pay dividends in the Championship and assuming Birmingham don’t go under, I think they will be strong. Leicester City seem to be gearing up for a tilt at promotion with their array of impressive signings. Those are the main contenders for the top two spots, in my eyes.
James: Hard to see past Leicester as champions, as long as Svennis can hold it all together and avoid any fake Sheikh controversies. QPR showed last year that building a decent squad is half the battle won in the Championship, and Leicester’s addition of Championship stalwarts Mills, St Ledger, Danns and Nugent - plus their excellent form in the second half of last season - suggests they’ll walk it.
As for the rest, unlike Leicester who’ve done their shopping early, it’ll probably depend on what happens before the transfer window shuts. Of the three relegated clubs West Ham are probably best placed for a promotion push, so I’d tip them to sneak into the top two.
Catherine: West Ham could well run away with it. They’re still a massive football club and I don’t think they’ll struggle as badly financially as a lot of clubs who drop down from the Premiership. Despite his critics, Sam Allardyce will do a job and attract good players, and I think the way he built Bolton up after promotion would work this time around at West Ham.
Rob: Although their heavy spending will provoke a determination in others to put one over them, I think Leicester City will prevail. Sven-Göran Eriksson has abandoned last season’s policy of hiring loanees from the Premier League and generally opted for homegrown talent - more often than not from outside the Premier League - and yet the Foxes have also kept hold of Andy King, their stand out player from 2010-11.
Following them back into the top echelon should be Birmingham and West Ham - both will lose some players but will still possess enough to rally strongly - Sam Allardyce can certainly be counted upon to add some steel to the latter and I feel Birmingham were unlucky to go down in the first place.
Chris: After much deliberation, I’ve decided to go for Nottingham Forest as Championship winners for this season. Perhaps a bit of a long shot in some people’s eyes, but there’s much to admire about the City Ground club and their current direction of travel. With Steve McClaren taking over from Billy Davies in the Forest hot seat, he’ll appreciate the fact that his side were so stingy in defence last season and is already shoring up the rest of the side with purchases such as Andy Reid from Blackpool and Jonathan Greening from Fulham.
As it’s not uncommon for a relegated side to bounce straight back up again, I’m going for Blackpool to finish as runners-up. Despite having to sell off a few key members of their Premier League squad - most notably Charlie Adam and David Vaughan - I believe Ian Holloway will once again instil that sense of belief that got them into the top flight in the first place. A shrewd tactician and with a keen eye for a purchase, he should give The Seasiders every chance of making it straight back to the big time again.
Who’ll reach the playoffs?
Terry: One from Blackpool, Leicester and Birmingham, I guess. Also, I think a full pre-season under Tony Mowbray will put Middlesbrough back on track. Similarly Burnley under Eddie Howe will be worth keeping an eye on. Ipswich proved a decent Cup side, last season, and if they can find some consistency, are genuine play off contenders.
I think we are all curious to see how Steve McClaren gets on at Forest. Reading, of course, should also be competitive. I realise that’s more than four teams but it’s a very competitive league.
James: Reading will be up there, and possibly Ipswich too - though it remains to be seen how they’ll replace Wickham. Brighton could well make back-to-back promotions, their stadium move and the hiring of Gus Poyet have really coincided nicely. And both Hull and Burnley have quietly improved under good managers. I’m going to go a bit left-field and say Brighton will go up from the play-offs.
Catherine: I think that Middlesbrough will get into the playoffs this time around. Tony Mowbray drove end-of-season success where Boro were scoring for fun and he more than made amends for the Gordon Strachan reign that nearly brought relegation trouble. Cardiff ran out of steam at the end of last season but they’re an incredibly strong side, and it’ll be interesting to see if their style changes with new manager Malky Mackay.
Nottingham Forest have also made an interesting managerial change by bringing in Steve McClaren who will pull ranks and have them pushing for promotion. Leeds will also always be up there - Simon Grayson is a fantastic manager and it’s only a matter of time before they’ll be back in the Premier League.
Rob: Much harder to call and I think there will be a surprise or two in there. One of Brighton or Southampton could make it, but I’m not sure which - but if I were to stick my neck out, I’d say the latter along with Nottingham Forest and Leeds. Challenging may be Burnley under Eddie Howe and Blackpool, although I would expect the Seasiders to run out of puff post-Christmas.
Chris: To mention my own team first, I think West Ham should just about scrape into the play-offs. Sam Allardyce, for all the criticism he gets, is about as experienced a manager as The Hammers could have hoped for after the departure of Avram Grant. If he can hold onto many of the better players in the squad and make shrewd signings like Kevin Nolan, West Ham will undoubtedly make it into the top six but perhaps no further.
Also making a push for the play-offs I think will be Leeds United, second only in the ‘goals scored’ column to Norwich last season, Reading, who never fail to show their resourcefulness under Brian McDermott, and as another long shot, Tony Mowbray’s Middlesbrough. Only one defeat in their last 12 matches in 2010/11 shows how well he often gets his teams playing, and if he can replicate that over a full season, Boro fans could have something to smile about. But which of those four will be enjoying a day out at Wembley next May? In my opinion, it’ll be Leeds.
Which sides will get relegated?
Terry: Almost an impossible prediction, given the fluidity of the league. Peterborough seem to be a yo-yo club so you’d get quite short odds on Posh to go down. You have to wonder how long Watford can endure with their many problems.
I also have a bad feeling about Derby County, They never seems to get it right and this season they could get it horribly wrong (that’s more of a gut feeling though). Doncaster Rovers are a growing club but I think are still vulnerable.
James: Barnsley have spent so long battling relegation, but their time is probably up this year. Peterborough will struggle having lost Mackail-Smith. And I also fear for Watford - we’ll find out just how good a manager Malky Mackay is next year, and not just by the performances of his Cardiff side, but also because of the decline at his old side.
Catherine: It’s always more difficult to predict who might struggle in the Championship than who will do well, and you can usually pick from 10 sides in the bottom half up until the last few weeks of the year. To avoid sitting on the fence I will plump for Barnsley, Southampton and Peterborough.
Rob: I fear for Coventry City. Subject to a transfer embargo earlier in the Summer and still in worryingly desperate financial straits, they have lost a triumvirate of key men in Aron Gunnarsson, Keiren Westwood and Marlon King, although Andy Thorn has been quietly impressive since taking over from Aidy Boothroyd.
Elsewhere, it might also be a tricky season for Crystal Palace and Doncaster Rovers. The latter in particular suffered an abysmal second half of the season and confidence seemed to drain out of Sean O’Driscoll’s side. Others who will flirt with the drop might include Ipswich Town, Bristol City and Watford, who have lost manager Malky Mackay and top scorer Danny Graham.
Chris: Put simply, Doncaster United don’t appear to have any redeeming features that can keep them up for another season to my untrained eye. Even the recent addition of former Ipswich and Leeds centre back Richard Naylor won’t be enough to stop Sean O’Driscoll’s side being dragged down the League One plug hole.
Going down with them, I feel, will be Barnsley and, given my Football Fairground connections, I’m sorry to say Crystal Palace too. Both clubs have been struggling to maintain a foothold in the second tier over the last two or three seasons and the quality of their summer signings doesn’t lead me to believe that that could change any time soon. I’m sorry to say it but these two fine teams may well be without a Championship chair when the music stops next summer.
Are there any sides you think could be a surprise package?
Terry: I’m choking on my own bile as I type this but I think Brighton will have a good season.
James: Brighton, for reasons already expressed. Other than them, the surprises will probably be in how seriously some of the Championship’s supposed better clubs will underperform - I can see Leeds, Nottingham Forest, Blackpool and Birmingham finishing in the bottom half next year.
Catherine: Leicester City have definitely been on the up the past couple of seasons and have made some good signings so far in David Nugent and experienced battlers like Sean St Ledger and Paul Konchesky.
It’s also going to be very interesting to see how Ian Holloway will regroup his Blackpool side after their devastating relegation. Will he be able to find a replacement for Charlie Adam before they kick off the season at Hull? We’ll have to wait and see.
Rob: Brighton seems to be the darlings of the blogosphere and I’m also an admirer, but let me state one thing - the Seagulls doing well would not be a surprise and let’s remember how much money they have disbursed to bring Craig Mackail-Smith to Falmer.
If we are talking about the truly unexpected, then I think Barnsley under the estimable Keith Hill might trouble a few, although it might be stretching it to expect them to compete in the play offs. I’m also anticipating Middlesbrough will compete much more vigorously this time out.
Chris: Aside from the aforementioned Middlesbrough, I think Leicester City have the potential to raise a few eyebrows. Providing Sven does the decent and all-too-rare thing of honouring a contract in full, he should continue to use his influence by bringing in a few good players to push the side onto greater things.
Elsewhere, Millwall could be worth keeping an eye open for, while Southampton and Brighton have every capability of building on their promotion momentum to flirt with the idea of a play-off spot.
Which players in the division should we look out for this season?
Terry: Jonathan Greening’s an excellent signing for Forest. This could be Nathaniel Clyne’s last season for Palace. Rickie Lambert at Southampton should relish the challenge with Southampton back in the Championship.
James: West Ham’s crop of youngsters - Hines, Stanislas, Sears - will probably benefit from being out of the harsh Premier League spotlight. In fact, many of West Ham’s younger squad members will come to the fore. Let’s not forget, James Tomkins and Jack Collison are still only 22 - those two in particular are far too good for this division.
If he’s still at Palace, I’ll be watching 18-year-old winger Wilfried Zaha. Likewise at Watford, Marvin Sordell will excite in attack. And Jem Karacan was superb in Reading’s midfield last year.
And I also like to keep an eye on some of the more experienced heads in the division. Neil Danns at Leicester is hugely under-rated. Despite his low scoring rate Steffen Iversen is still a class above most Championship strikers at Palace. And Jobi McAnuff, just handed the captaincy at Reading, is another league stalwart I’m always impressed by.
Catherine: The transfer market hasn’t really hotted up yet in the Championship. Cardiff have made a few shrewd summer signings and I would highlight veteran Robert Earnshaw and tricky full-back Andrew Taylor to do well for them.
On the other hand, as more and more clubs fall victim to financial crises, we could expect to see them relying more heavily on fresh, formerly unseen academy talent. Fans of former Premier League clubs such as Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Middlesbrough have expressed their concern at the number of key players who have left and not yet been replaced.
Rob: Apart from established Championshippers like Andy King, Robert Snodgrass and Luke Chambers, I thought Jonathan Greening was a particularly shrewd signing by Nottingham Forest and of course Kevin Nolan is a very canny capture for West Ham.
Elsewhere, Hal Robson-Kanu had a super last ten games of the season for Reading, Nicky Ajose has joined Peterborough after an eye catching spell two divisions lower at Bury, and James Chester exudes calm at centre back for Hull City. Iñigo Calderón of Brighton and Adam Lallana of Southampton can also expect to step up with ease.
Chris: Watch out for Nottingham Forest’s Lewis McGugan - while you can. Rumour has it he’s currently on the radar of Newcastle United and several other clubs, and it’s no surprise either. As a highly-talented goalscorer and provider of chances from midfield, this could well be a real breakthrough season for him - especially with a former England manager now alongside him to provide support.
This will also be a critical season in the development of West Ham striker Freddie Sears. Having burst into the first team back in 2008 with a goal on his debut at the age of only 18, he was given a run in the side but was eventually sent out on loan to Crystal Palace, Coventry and Scunthorpe. Now back at Upton Park and better off for his loan experiences, this Championship campaign will very likely give him the chance to prove he can fill the recently-vacated shoes of Demba Ba. I believe he will.
That’s the Championship done and predicted, and Brighton and Hove Albion fans can take a lot of positives from our five fans, all of whom tip them for a good season. West Ham, if our five predictions are anything to go by, should have a good season, while Leicester are picking up plenty of mentions.
At the other end, Peterborough and Barnsley picked up the most votes to go down, although Rob bucked the trend by suggesting Keith Hill’s side may even flirt with the playoffs.
But as the differing predictions show, the Championship looks set to retain its reputation as the most unpredictable league in this country. Tomorrow, we’re onto the calmer waters of League One.
Chris and Terry can both be found at the Football Fairground, and @coakleyftbl and @terryduffelen on Twitter. Rob is one part of the excellent twounfortunates Football League blog, and you can follow them on @twounfortunates. James Appell is everywhere, but mainly at ITV Football and @jamesappell, while Catherine can be followed @basslady.
Previous Five Go Predicting: The Premier League.
Tags: Barnsley, Blackpool, Brighton, Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace, Leeds United, Leicester City, Middlesbrough, Peterborough United, Reading, The Championship, West Ham
Some nice thoughts there. If though Doncaster United do go down, what on earth will Rovers do without their Donny derby?
Personally I think a rampant Reading will beat their own record and win the first 14 matches straight. (Whilst losing to Charlton in the League Cup of course).
Other than that I think Sven could be out on his ear by January if Leicester aren’t top three - expect to see Phil Brown back in the “big time” warming up the old vocal chords.
As long as he hasn’t made a terrible, terrible miscalculation in going there I think Allardyce will see West Ham go up. One team out of the blue, punching above their weight…: Millwall.
Reading’s chances rest on whether Shane Long stays or not - but I think Bongani Khumalo could be a very astute replacement for Matt Mills. Good to see James mention Jem Karacan who is really developing into a great midfielder.
Increasingly, the battle to sign players between Leicester and West Ham is resembling the Cold War arms race and my previous tip to challenge them, Birmingham City have been harmed by the Carson Yeung fiasco.
[...] Chris Ledger: The hurt of losing Anthony Pilkington will be softened by the arrival of winger-cum-forward Danny Ward at Huddersfield Town. Ward has already impressed League One supporters, during his goal-filled loan spells at the Galpharm Stadium and Swindon Town, and he should be an automatic starter for the Terriers. Opposing League One defenders should be very scared. Goalscoring midfielders-cum-strikers are starting to become a more regular fixture in League One and recent Rochdale signing Ashley Grimes may soon be added to that list. The former Manchester City trainee scored 15 goals in 27 League Two games for Lincoln City last season and, if he had arrived on loan earlier, Grimes probably would have single-handedly kept the Imps up, despite his poor attitude and disciplinary record. If Rochdale are to avoid “second-season syndrome”, Grimes will be expected to do more of the same. And, for once, we have a consensus of sorts among our five predictors. If these predictions are current then expect to see Huddersfield and Preston gracing the Championship next season. The playoffs offer a little more disagreement, although in addition to the bigger sides such as Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield United and Charlton, our panel fancy Orient, Exeter or Brentford to crash the party. At the bottom of the table, it seems our five have already condemmed Bury, Walsall, Tranmere and Wycombe, with the exception of Stevenage fan Matt Kett for the latter. And speaking of Stevenage, Matt might not be too optimistic, but the rest of our fans seem to think Boro will more than hold their own in the division. You can read Chris Lines at Narrow The Angle or follow him on Twitter @NarrowTheAngle. Matt Kett is your first port of call for all things Stevenage at the FC Boro blog and is @fcboro on Twitter. Chris Ledger edits the excellent Obscure Football And Music and is at @obscurefootball, while Jamie is everywhere on @jamiecutteridge. Gary will be writing here throughout the season and musing @gafootbl. Previous Five Go Predicting: The Championship. [...]