Premier League title race: the run-in
Saturday, 11 April 2009
After a few posts covering podcasts, non-league and Major League Soccer, it's back to basics for me today - back into my comfort zone. This afternoon, I'll be live-blogging the 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League.
But now, with 15 minutes left until Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers kick off at Anfield, I'm going to have a look at the Premier League title race. To be honest I'm surprised there even is one at this point, and that speaks volumes for the determination shown by Liverpool and Chelsea, and a bit of a slip by Manchester United.
Manchester United, 68 points
Twice this season I've called the title race in Manchester United's favour, and I'm surprised I've not yet been proven right. United's form has wobbled like almost never before.
A 4-1 home hammering at the hands of Liverpool blew the battle wide open, and the "inevitable" backlash at Fulham turned into another defeat as Danny Murphy and Zoltan Gera bagged three points for the Cottagers.
The major advantage for United is not the one point cushion ahead of Liverpool but the game in hand over both chasing sides.
United appear to have a favourable run-in. The away matches are at Sunderland and Middlesbrough, both apparently desperate to get relegated, and Wigan and Hull. The latter pair are not easy trips, but should be unproblematic at the business end of the season.
Portsmouth and Spurs shouldn't cause too many worries at home, but the sticking points are the final two matches at Old Trafford. Manchester City and Arsenal can both be slippery customers at Old Trafford, and United will need to be on their game to pick up six points.
Liverpool, 67 points
For Liverpool, the crunch time is now. If they can win today, in emotional circumstances, and overcome the very difficult visit of Arsenal in the next match, confidence will be high. Liverpool had been on rip-roaring form before losing to Chelsea in the Champions League, and will be looking to get back onto steady footing today.
Visits to Hull and West Brom should bring six points, but a difficult trip to Upton Park could threaten Liverpool's challenge. But after thrashing Manchester United and then Aston Villa, Mad Rafa's men have shown they're more than capable of overcoming tough matches.
Newcastle United at home should be an easy win, but I can't imagine the last day visit of Spurs will be a walk in the park. I'm sure one Robbie Keane would agree.
Chelsea, 64 points
Just four points back, it would be stupid to rule out Chelsea even at this late stage. They're just the type of team that loves to get the bit between their teeth and go on a huge run of wins.
They have four home games versus three aways, and they'll fancy a twelve-point maximum against Bolton, Everton, Fulham and Blackburn.
Away from Stamford Bridge, a sticky visit to West Ham will be overcome if Chelsea have a good game, while Sunderland on the last day should be a nailed-on win. The toughest challenge awaiting Chelsea is a trip to the Emirates to face Arsenal, themselves with plenty to play for.
The twofootedtackle verdict
I still can't see past Manchester United to retain the Premier League title. I believe Chelsea will come on strong and possibly win almost everything thrown at them, but the four-point gap to United will be too much. Liverpool remain a threat, but I think United's game in hand will be won and I can't see United dropping four more points than Liverpool.
Let me know what you think.
Posted by Chris Nee
5 comments:
Can't disagree with any of that Chris and only one thing to really add in that Chelsea may choose to focus everything on the Champs League and accept third in the Prem. For some reason, it feels like it could be the Blues year in Europe....
Great point Eddie. I suspect that will be true as soon as Chelsea drop a couple of points.
I'm a Man United fan but I still think Liverpool are gonna do it, Man United are not on form at all, and are relying on a 17 year old kid to win them games.
Ronaldo has burnt out, Berbatov is a one hit wonder.
We gotta keep Tevez. The defence is poor at the moment too, we need Rio back to lead them.
It could be all or nothing for United. They need to get their act together.
Hi Ian.
They certainly can do it, I just think (hope) they don't. In reality, the difference between United and Liverpool at the moment is paper thin - thankfully, United were good enough through the middle of the season to give them a cushion which allowed Liverpool to play incredibly well and still not be in the driving seat.
Arsenal hold the key to the season.
They will make or break the title race.
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